In transition lenses there are patented photochromic dyes that cause them to darken when exposed to ultraviolet rays from sunlight: as the light changes, the level of tint adapts and we always end up with the right shade at the right time. With the present thesis, I aim at reaching a similar mechanism, but for policy-making, the XR framework. Imagine the latter as those transition lenses, biases and other contextual and cognitive factors as the sunlight and intertemporal decision-making and learning as those photochromic dyes. The XR framework should, indeed, contribute to the preliminary evaluation of the plausible compliance (and success) of a policy or a change, starting from, on the one hand, the evaluation of the weights associated to inter-temporal trade-offs and, on the other, a behavioural analysis of the process of adaptation to change of subjects of various composition. Such a preliminary evaluation method has to be intended as a part of a bigger multi-disciplinary architecture – as provided for the study of complex systems – entailing strictly economic assessments and flexible means, spanning from the well-known libertarian paternalism to mere nudge and even temporary law. To ensure reliability and efficacy, the proposal and its premises have been put to test through a series of qualitative interviews, a review of the existing literature and, of course, a case study, gender quotas in the EU27. I argue, in conclusion, such an approach will have fruitful applications in the evaluation of yet-to-be-applied policy provisions to give people, and not simply institutions, the means to adjust their short-sighted vision towards long-term and sustainability, even if it means to allow Second Best decisions.
Nelle lenti transition sono presenti coloranti fotocromatici che fanno sì esse si scuriscano se esposte alle luci ultraviolette solari: non appena la luce cambia, il livello del colorante si adatta in modo da garantirci la giusta protezione al momento giusto. Con la presente tesi, miro a proporre un simile meccanismo, ma per il policy-making, I'XR framework. Si immagini quest'ultimo come fosse quel paio di lenti transition, i bias o altri fattori cognitivi e contestuali come la luce del sole e i processi decisionali e di apprendimento intertemporali come quei coloranti fotocromatici. L'XR framework vuole, dunque, contribuire ad una valutazione preliminare della possibile collaborazione (e successo) a una policy o un cambiamento, partendo, da un lato, dalla valutazione dei pesi associati ai trade-off inter-temporali, e dall'altro, da un'analisi comportamentale dei processi di adattamento ai cambiamenti di soggetti di varia composizione. Un simile metodo di valutazione va considerato quale parte di un'architettura multidisciplinare più ampia - come previsto per ogni sistema complesso - che includa accertamenti di natura prettamente economica e approcci più flessibili, dal famoso paternalismo libertario al semplice nudge e persino alla legge temporanea. Per assicurare affidabilità ed accertare la sua efficacia, la proposta e le sue premesse sono state testate tramite una serie di interviste qualitative, una revisione della letteratura esistente e, ovviamente, un caso di studio: le quote di genere negli EU27. In conclusione, sostengo che il seguente approccio possa avere applicazioni vantaggiose nella valutazione di policy precedente alla loro effettiva messa in atto, in modo da dare alle persone, e non semplicemente alle istituzioni, i giusti mezzi per aggiustare la loro visione, miope, verso obiettivi sostenibili e di lungo termine, anche qualora significasse concedere decisioni di Secondo Ottimo.
Transitional lenses for hyperbolic myopia: an adaptive approach to policy making
VARISCO, ANDREA SHARON
2021/2022
Abstract
In transition lenses there are patented photochromic dyes that cause them to darken when exposed to ultraviolet rays from sunlight: as the light changes, the level of tint adapts and we always end up with the right shade at the right time. With the present thesis, I aim at reaching a similar mechanism, but for policy-making, the XR framework. Imagine the latter as those transition lenses, biases and other contextual and cognitive factors as the sunlight and intertemporal decision-making and learning as those photochromic dyes. The XR framework should, indeed, contribute to the preliminary evaluation of the plausible compliance (and success) of a policy or a change, starting from, on the one hand, the evaluation of the weights associated to inter-temporal trade-offs and, on the other, a behavioural analysis of the process of adaptation to change of subjects of various composition. Such a preliminary evaluation method has to be intended as a part of a bigger multi-disciplinary architecture – as provided for the study of complex systems – entailing strictly economic assessments and flexible means, spanning from the well-known libertarian paternalism to mere nudge and even temporary law. To ensure reliability and efficacy, the proposal and its premises have been put to test through a series of qualitative interviews, a review of the existing literature and, of course, a case study, gender quotas in the EU27. I argue, in conclusion, such an approach will have fruitful applications in the evaluation of yet-to-be-applied policy provisions to give people, and not simply institutions, the means to adjust their short-sighted vision towards long-term and sustainability, even if it means to allow Second Best decisions.È consentito all'utente scaricare e condividere i documenti disponibili a testo pieno in UNITESI UNIPV nel rispetto della licenza Creative Commons del tipo CC BY NC ND.
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14239/2637