Abstract The 2018 financial crisis in Iran introduced unprecedented inflation into the Iranian food market, which would most definitely have an effect on the food security of the Iranian people. The study attempts to find out how the financial crisis has influenced the prices of food and the food security of households in Iran. The impacts of the financial crisis on the average retail price of food products in Iran were investigated using interrupted time series analysis. Household food security was estimated using calculation of the share of household food expenditure. The costs of following a healthy diet based on the food pyramid were estimated. After the financial crisis due to the limitations in international financial exchanges, a significant increase in the prices of all food groups occurred in 2018, the year after the re-imposition of sanctions and the financial crisis. The share of food insecurity-vulnerable urban and rural households in Iran increased from 8.84% and 25.17% in 2017 to 13.64% and 33.23% in 2021, respectively. As shown, the annual average healthy diet cost for a sample Iranian family of 3.3, calculated at current prices, stands at 941,994,884 IRR (US$ 3991). Food insecurity has increased owing to economic vulnerability in Iran after the financial crisis, and with the current status of food prices and incomes, it will be more difficult for most Iranians to follow a healthy diet. This makes Iranians more prone to chronic diseases in the near future; if this trend continues, it puts the country in danger of both a food crisis and political instability. Keywords Food Security, Financial Crisis, Iran, Interrupted Time Series (ITS), STATA, Consumer Price Index, Undernourishment, Food Insecurity.
La crisi finanziaria del 2018 in Iran ha introdotto un'inflazione senza precedenti nel mercato alimentare iraniano, che ha sicuramente avuto un effetto sulla sicurezza alimentare del popolo iraniano. Lo studio cerca di capire come la crisi finanziaria abbia influenzato i prezzi degli alimenti e la sicurezza alimentare delle famiglie in Iran. Gli impatti della crisi finanziaria sul prezzo medio al dettaglio dei prodotti alimentari in Iran sono stati esaminati utilizzando l'analisi delle serie temporali interrotte. La sicurezza alimentare delle famiglie è stata stimata calcolando la quota di spesa alimentare delle famiglie. I costi per seguire una dieta sana basata sulla piramide alimentare sono stati stimati. Dopo la crisi finanziaria, a causa delle limitazioni negli scambi finanziari internazionali, si è verificato un significativo aumento dei prezzi di tutti i gruppi alimentari nel 2018, l'anno successivo alla reimposizione delle sanzioni e alla crisi finanziaria. La quota di famiglie urbane e rurali vulnerabili all'insicurezza alimentare in Iran è aumentata rispettivamente dall'8,84% e dal 25,17% nel 2017 al 13,64% e al 33,23% nel 2021. Come mostrato, il costo medio annuo di una dieta sana per una famiglia iraniana campione di 3,3 persone, calcolato ai prezzi correnti, ammonta a 941.994.884 IRR (3.991 dollari USA). L'insicurezza alimentare è aumentata a causa della vulnerabilità economica in Iran dopo la crisi finanziaria e, con l'attuale situazione dei prezzi alimentari e dei redditi, sarà più difficile per la maggior parte degli iraniani seguire una dieta sana. Questo rende gli iraniani più inclini a malattie croniche nel prossimo futuro; se questa tendenza continua, il paese rischia sia una crisi alimentare sia un'instabilità politica.
SITUAZIONE DELLA SICUREZZA ALIMENTARE IN TEMPI DI CRISI FINANZIARIA IN IRAN
AKBARI JOR, ELHAM
2023/2024
Abstract
Abstract The 2018 financial crisis in Iran introduced unprecedented inflation into the Iranian food market, which would most definitely have an effect on the food security of the Iranian people. The study attempts to find out how the financial crisis has influenced the prices of food and the food security of households in Iran. The impacts of the financial crisis on the average retail price of food products in Iran were investigated using interrupted time series analysis. Household food security was estimated using calculation of the share of household food expenditure. The costs of following a healthy diet based on the food pyramid were estimated. After the financial crisis due to the limitations in international financial exchanges, a significant increase in the prices of all food groups occurred in 2018, the year after the re-imposition of sanctions and the financial crisis. The share of food insecurity-vulnerable urban and rural households in Iran increased from 8.84% and 25.17% in 2017 to 13.64% and 33.23% in 2021, respectively. As shown, the annual average healthy diet cost for a sample Iranian family of 3.3, calculated at current prices, stands at 941,994,884 IRR (US$ 3991). Food insecurity has increased owing to economic vulnerability in Iran after the financial crisis, and with the current status of food prices and incomes, it will be more difficult for most Iranians to follow a healthy diet. This makes Iranians more prone to chronic diseases in the near future; if this trend continues, it puts the country in danger of both a food crisis and political instability. Keywords Food Security, Financial Crisis, Iran, Interrupted Time Series (ITS), STATA, Consumer Price Index, Undernourishment, Food Insecurity.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14239/26752