The Bukele Model: Security Policy Transfer in Central America

This thesis examines the diffusion of the Bukele security model—an aggressive anti-crime strategy developed in El Salvador under President Nayib Bukele—across the Northern Triangle of Central America. Under the theoretical framework of the policy transfer literature, the research investigates to what extent and through what mechanisms have elements of the Bukele model spread beyond El Salvador, focusing specifically on Honduras and Guatemala. Using the theoretical framework of policy transfer, it investigates the extent and mechanisms through which elements of the Bukele model have spread beyond El Salvador, focusing specifically on Honduras and Guatemala. Relying on process tracing, the study reconstructs the evolution of security policy in both countries during the 21st century and compares them to assess Bukele’s regional influence. The findings show that Honduras has adopted several core elements of the Bukele model, while Guatemala has largely resisted them, though not all. This divergence is best explained by differences in each country’s policy trajectory and the nature of their respective security crises. The study further finds that transfer has occurred primarily through the mechanisms of emulation and competition, underscoring the predominance of symbolic imitation over lesson-drawing or international coercion. By highlighting the uneven and selective spread of the Bukele model, this thesis contributes to broader debates about contemporary security governance in Latin America, the waning influence of international actors, and the rising role of political symbolism in shaping policy agendas. It concludes that while the Bukele model’s influence continues to grow, its adoption remains highly dependent on domestic conditions and institutional context.