From Dependence to Diversification: Evaluating the Diplomatic Viability of BRICS Membership for Mexico

This thesis examines whether full membership in the BRICS bloc constitutes a viable diplomatic path for Mexico within an increasingly fragmented and multipolar international order. Under a theoretical framework that combines realism, neorealism, peripheral realism and intergovernmentalism, it investigates how a middle power structurally rooted in the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) might use the BRICS network to renegotiate, rather than escape, its dependence on the United States. Methodologically, the research relies on a qualitative process, tracing and reconstructing the evolution of Mexico’s foreign policy doctrines of sovereignty and non-intervention and situating them alongside the hard-law integration of NAFTA/USMCA and the softer, intergovernmental cooperation offered by BRICS institutions, particularly the New Development Bank. In addition, a comparative case study of Argentina’s 2023–2025 BRICS+ episode is used to explore how states can separate multilateral symbolism from bilateral substance. The findings show that Mexico’s export structure and production networks are deeply and asymmetrically tied to North America, strictly limiting the possibility for trade reorientation toward BRICS markets. The realistic possibility of diversification lies instead in finance and diplomacy: project-based cooperation with individual BRICS members, expanded participation in BRICS/BRICS+ working formats, and carefully restricted use of BRICS-related financing for USMCA-compatible projects. The thesis argues that formal BRICS accession would send a costly signal of bloc realignment ahead of the 2026 USMCA review, while providing minimal compensatory material advantages. By emphasizing the conflict between structural dependence and aspirations for greater autonomy, the study contributes to broader debates on middle-power strategies in a multiplex world order and concludes that Mexico’s optimal strategy is structured pluralism: preserving a North American core while selectively collaborating with the BRICS through carefully chosen, bilateral, and sector-specific tools instead of full membership.