The Gap Between Citizens’ Perceptions and Institutional Reality in Serbia’s Hybrid Regime

This thesis examines the gap between citizens’ perceptions of democracy and the institutional reality of democratic governance in Serbia, conceptualized as a hybrid regime. While formal democratic institutions such as elections, political pluralism, and constitutional guarantees are present, their functioning is often undermined by practices that limit political competition, weaken checks and balances, and concentrate power. At the same time, many citizens continue to perceive the system as democratic or “good enough,” revealing a discrepancy between perceived and empirical democratic quality. The study draws on key debates in democratic theory, examining both minimalist and maximalist conceptions of democracy, as well as more recent approaches such as egalitarian and “real” democracy. Building on the literature on hybrid regimes, the thesis positions Serbia within a broader category of political systems that combine formal democratic procedures with authoritarian practices. Empirically, the research combines analysis of institutional indicators, such as international democracy indices and assessments of electoral integrity, media freedom, and rule of law, with perception-based data and qualitative evidence. It develops a framework for identifying and measuring the perception–reality gap, focusing on areas in which citizens tend to overestimate democratic performance, particularly in elections, the media, and corruption. The thesis further explores the causal mechanisms that sustain this gap, including media narratives, informational asymmetries, clientelist practices, and the normalization of low democratic expectations. The findings indicate that this gap is not simply a consequence of democratic decline but constitutes a core element of hybrid regime stability. By maintaining formal democratic structures while shaping how citizens interpret political realities, ruling elites are able to preserve legitimacy and reduce pressures for political change. The thesis explores opportunities to bridge this gap during pivotal moments, with a focus on the collapse of the Novi Sad railway station and the subsequent wave of student protests. how these events disrupt dominant narratives, transform public opinion, and expose inconsistencies between democratic claims and institutional practices. The thesis concludes that the persistence of hybrid regimes such as Serbia cannot be fully understood without accounting for the relationship between institutional structures and citizens’ perceptions. Bridging the gap between perception and institutional reality emerges as a key condition for meaningful democratization, while its disruption represents a potential pathway for political change.