Central Asia stands out as one of the most significant strategic hubs in contemporary Eurasia, a crossroads of trade routes, energy resources, and the geopolitical interests of major powers. The region comprises Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—five states that share a common Soviet legacy but have followed profoundly different paths of economic and political development. Their central geographical position—nestled between Russia, China, the Middle East, and India—makes them indispensable players in global connectivity projects, from China’s Belt and Road Initiative to the European Middle Corridor promoted under the Global Gateway. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered extraordinarily complex economic and political transitions in the Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan and, more recently, Uzbekistan have pursued reforms aimed at modernization, improving the investment climate, and integrating into global markets. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan exhibit structural vulnerabilities, relying heavily on migrant remittances and international aid. Turkmenistan, on the other hand, has maintained a highly centralized development model based on natural gas exports, primarily to China. These divergent trajectories reflect substantial differences in natural resource endowments, institutional quality, and the degree of trade openness. In recent years, and particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Central Asia has become an arena of strategic competition between Russia—which maintains structural leverage through the CSTO and EAEU —and the European Union, which has progressively strengthened its role through the Global Gateway, sectoral strategies for Central Asia, and a series of summits with the five countries of the region. Western sanctions against Moscow have accelerated this geopolitical dynamic, opening up opportunities for greater Central Asian diversification toward the EU, China, and multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. This thesis aims to systematically analyze the economic, social, and institutional performance of Central Asia within the context of new global trade routes, assessing the extent to which international cooperation policies—with a particular focus on Russia and the EU—impact the region’s economic growth and human development. In particular, the study examines the development models that characterize regional differences; it explores the role of bilateral and multilateral cooperation in influencing regional economic integration processes; and, finally, it explores prospects for balanced cooperation that can reconcile geopolitical interests with sustainable development goals. The thesis is divided into four chapters. The first outlines the historical-geographical context and the Soviet legacy that continue to shape economic structures and political institutions. The second chapter analyzes indicators of economic, human, and social development, highlighting structural asymmetries and vulnerabilities. The third chapter examines the evolution of EU-Central Asia cooperation from the dissolution of the USSR to the present, with particular attention to the turning point represented by the war in Ukraine. Finally, the fourth chapter analyzes Russian influence in the region and the transformations brought about by the Ukrainian conflict. The conclusions summarize the findings and outline prospects and recommendations for cooperation policies.
L’Asia centrale si configura come uno dei nodi strategici più rilevanti dell’Eurasia contemporanea, crocevia di rotte commerciali, risorse energetiche e interessi geopolitici delle grandi potenze. La regione comprende Kazakistan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizistan, Tagikistan e Turkmenistan, cinque Stati che condividono un’eredità sovietica comune ma percorsi di sviluppo economico e politico profondamente differenziati. La loro posizione geografica centrale – racchiusa tra Russia, Cina, Medio Oriente e India – li rende protagonisti imprescindibili nei progetti di connettività globale, dal Belt and Road Initiative cinese al Middle Corridor europeo promosso nell’ambito del Global Gateway. Il crollo dell’Unione Sovietica nel 1991 ha innescato nei paesi centro-asiatici transizioni economiche e politiche di straordinaria complessità. Kazakistan e, più recentemente, l’Uzbekistan hanno perseguito riforme orientate alla modernizzazione, al miglioramento del clima degli investimenti e all’integrazione nei mercati globali, mentre Kirghizistan e Tagikistan mostrano vulnerabilità strutturali, dipendenti in misura preponderante da rimesse dei migranti e assistenza internazionale. Il Turkmenistan, invece, ha mantenuto un modello di sviluppo fortemente centralizzato, fondato sulle esportazioni di gas naturale prevalentemente verso la Cina. Queste traiettorie divergenti riflettono differenze sostanziali nelle dotazioni di risorse naturali, nelle qualità delle istituzioni e nel grado di apertura commerciale. Negli ultimi anni, e in particolare dopo l’invasione russa dell’Ucraina nel 2022, l’Asia Centrale è diventata arena di competizione strategica tra Russia – che mantiene leve strutturali attraverso CSTO es EAEU - e Unione Europea, la quale ha progressivamente rafforzato il proprio ruolo mediante il Global Gateway, le strategie settoriali per l’Asia Centrale e una serie di summit con i cinque paesi della regione. Le sanzioni occidentali contro Mosca hanno accelerato questo dinamismo geopolitico, aprendo spazi di opportunità per una maggiore diversificazione centroasiatica verso UE, Cina e istituzioni multilaterali come la Banca Mondiale e l’Asian Development Bank. Questa tesi si propone di analizzare sistematicamente le performance economiche, sociali e istituzionali dell’Asia Centrale nel contesto delle nuove rotte commerciali globali, valutando in che misura le politiche di cooperazione internazionale – con particolare attenzione a Russia e UE – incidano sulla crescita economica e sullo sviluppo umano della regione. In particolare, il lavoro indaga i modelli di sviluppo che caratterizzano differenze; esamina il ruolo della cooperazione bilaterale e multilaterale nell’influenzare i processi di integrazione economica regionale ed esplora, infine, prospettive per una cooperazione equilibrata che sappia coniugare interessi geopolitici con obiettivi di sviluppo sostenibile. La tesi si articola in quattro capitoli. Il primo delinea il contesto storico-geografico e l’eredità sovietica che continuano a modellare strutture economiche e istituzioni politiche. Il secondo capitolo analizza gli indicatori di sviluppo economico, umano e sociale, evidenziando asimmetrie e vulnerabilità strutturali. Il terzo esamina l’evoluzione della cooperazione UE-Asia Centrale dalla dissoluzione dell’URSS ad oggi, con particolare attenzione al turning point rappresentato dalla guerra in Ucraina. Il quarto capitolo, infine, analizza l’influenza russa nella regione e le trasformazioni indotte dal conflitto ucraino. Le conclusioni sintetizzano i risultati e delineano prospettive e raccomandazioni per le politiche di cooperazione.
COOPERAZIONE INTERNAZIONALE E SVILUPPO ECONOMICO IN ASIA CENTRALE: IL RUOLO DELLA RUSSIA E DELL’UNIONE EUROPEA NELLO SCENARIO DELLA GUERRA IN UCRAINA
MICIELI, ANDREA
2024/2025
Abstract
Central Asia stands out as one of the most significant strategic hubs in contemporary Eurasia, a crossroads of trade routes, energy resources, and the geopolitical interests of major powers. The region comprises Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—five states that share a common Soviet legacy but have followed profoundly different paths of economic and political development. Their central geographical position—nestled between Russia, China, the Middle East, and India—makes them indispensable players in global connectivity projects, from China’s Belt and Road Initiative to the European Middle Corridor promoted under the Global Gateway. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered extraordinarily complex economic and political transitions in the Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan and, more recently, Uzbekistan have pursued reforms aimed at modernization, improving the investment climate, and integrating into global markets. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan exhibit structural vulnerabilities, relying heavily on migrant remittances and international aid. Turkmenistan, on the other hand, has maintained a highly centralized development model based on natural gas exports, primarily to China. These divergent trajectories reflect substantial differences in natural resource endowments, institutional quality, and the degree of trade openness. In recent years, and particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Central Asia has become an arena of strategic competition between Russia—which maintains structural leverage through the CSTO and EAEU —and the European Union, which has progressively strengthened its role through the Global Gateway, sectoral strategies for Central Asia, and a series of summits with the five countries of the region. Western sanctions against Moscow have accelerated this geopolitical dynamic, opening up opportunities for greater Central Asian diversification toward the EU, China, and multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. This thesis aims to systematically analyze the economic, social, and institutional performance of Central Asia within the context of new global trade routes, assessing the extent to which international cooperation policies—with a particular focus on Russia and the EU—impact the region’s economic growth and human development. In particular, the study examines the development models that characterize regional differences; it explores the role of bilateral and multilateral cooperation in influencing regional economic integration processes; and, finally, it explores prospects for balanced cooperation that can reconcile geopolitical interests with sustainable development goals. The thesis is divided into four chapters. The first outlines the historical-geographical context and the Soviet legacy that continue to shape economic structures and political institutions. The second chapter analyzes indicators of economic, human, and social development, highlighting structural asymmetries and vulnerabilities. The third chapter examines the evolution of EU-Central Asia cooperation from the dissolution of the USSR to the present, with particular attention to the turning point represented by the war in Ukraine. Finally, the fourth chapter analyzes Russian influence in the region and the transformations brought about by the Ukrainian conflict. The conclusions summarize the findings and outline prospects and recommendations for cooperation policies.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Descrizione: La tesi si propone di analizzare sistematicamente le performance economiche, sociali e istituzionali dell’Asia Centrale valutando in che misura le politiche di cooperazione internazionale incidano sulla crescita economica e sullo sviluppo umano.
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14239/34604