The Arctic Nexus: Security and Governance in a Changing Region

This thesis examines the evolving nexus of security and governance in the Arctic. Climate change, resource exploitation and shifting geopolitical dynamics are the main drivers of the profound transformation this region has undergone in recent years. What was perceived as an isolated, far-away region for many centuries is now slowly becoming a central geopolitical arena where vast natural resources, emerging maritime routes and strategic rivalries converge into a complex entity. Using a mixed-method approach that combines qualitative analysis of policies, strategies and governance frameworks with selective quantitative data on resources and transit routes, the thesis offers an insight into the peculiar interplay between state and non-state actors which is shaping the order of the High North. Case studies of the United States, Canada, Russia and China highlight an apparent realist turn in their Arctic strategies, with power projection increasingly overshadowing cooperative norms. At the same time, institutional mechanisms of the region, such as the Arctic Council and UNCLOS remain absolutely critical, as they are illustrative of the region’s hybrid governance model. This hybrid governance model, while fragile and conditional, is still anchored in the legal and institutional framework of the international law principles. The thesis further investigates the security dimension, focusing on infrastructure vulnerabilities, hybrid threats and the implications of rising tensions and realist turn in the region. Ultimately, the thesis argues that the Arctic serves as a litmus test for the resilience of international cooperation under the intensified geopolitical competition. The region’s future trajectory, whether it is marked by confrontation or collaboration, will not only define regional stability but also reflect broader shifts in the global order.

La tesi esamina le dinamiche di sicurezza e governance nell'Artico, una regione che sta cambiando rapidamente a causa dello sfruttamento delle risorse, del cambiamento climatico e della crescente importanza geopolitica. Grazie ai nuovi passaggi marittimi e all'abbondanza di risorse naturali, un'area che un tempo era marginale è diventata strategicamente importante e attira l'interesse di attori statali e non statali. L'analisi utilizza un approccio misto, con prevalenza qualitativa, per valutare l'impatto delle principali potenze (USA, Canada, Russia e Cina). I casi di studio mostrano una tendenza comune verso un approccio più realistico in cui la proiezione di potenza si affianca o prevale sugli strumenti di collaborazione. Sebbene organizzazioni come l'Arctic Council e UNCLOS continuino a fornire un quadro normativo essenziale, la loro efficacia appare limitata a causa della crescente tensione. Inoltre, le vulnerabilità infrastrutturali e le minacce ibride sono al centro della ricerca. Per concludere, l'Artico si presenta come un banco di prova per la cooperazione globale: La stabilità regionale e gli equilibri globali saranno fortemente influenzati dal suo futuro percorso di confronto e cooperazione.