ARMED CONFLICT AND FOOD PRICE DYNAMICS IN ETHIOPIA: AN INTERRUPTED TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE TIGRAY WAR

This study, through a quasi-experimental interrupted time series, examines how the Tigray armed conflict between November 2020 - November 2022 impacted food prices across Ethiopia’s administrative regions. Using segmented regression technique, the empirical findings reveal that conflict produced an immediate level decrease followed a 251 percent increase in inflation rate that persisted through the ceasefire period and beyond. The study goes on to reconcile these seemingly contradictory results through the data censoring hypothesis. Policy implications emphasize that humanitarian organizations should treat statistical measurement gaps as evidence of crisis severity. Early warning systems require parallel monitoring streams activating alternative information sources including satellite imagery, mobile phone crowdsourcing, and humanitarian field reports when primary data fail. Keywords: Armed conflict, food prices, interrupted time series analysis, Ethiopia, Tigray war, data censoring, humanitarian crisis, market disruption, food security