The South China Sea issue is increasingly catching international attention. The People's Republic of China has made significant investments in its navy as part of its focus to rapidly develop its naval capabilities. Nations adjacent to the South China Sea have increasingly adopted more cautious policy measures as the recent regional climate have altered their risk and threat perceptions. China’s assertive self-accommodation throughout island-chains, its emerging military capabilities, inability to adhere to maritime law, and its rejection to accept international arbitration rulings has brought increased attention from the U.S. This has resulted by a regional atmosphere where Southeast Asian nations are ‘caught up in the storm’ where unsuccessful alignment policies can steer towards injurious outcomes. Considering this, the purpose of this thesis is to shed light on how complex regional security constellations can be, as well as how changes within can spark alignment policies to change. To demonstrate this connection, the chosen regional security complex for this investigation is the South China Sea, and the structure of this dissertation is laid out with the following chapters. Firstly, the ‘methodology’ chapter delves into the research problem and design, navigating through the limitations posed in terms of observability and comparability. Subsequently, the ‘theoretical framework’ chapter will expound upon the frameworks guiding the analysis, namely the Regional Security Complex Theory, the harmonising alignment concepts of balancing, bandwagoning, and hedging, as well as how systemic pressure development within RSCs is echoed upon the nations’ strategic behaviours. This is in turn reflected through the nations’ respective sub-chapters in the ‘Analysis’ chapter, which utilises the hypotheses presented in the ‘Theoretical Framework’ chapter. Bridging these two chapters is the ‘Historical Context and Legal Approach’ Chapter, which will trace the development of the region, portraying the nature of China’s historical claims, and setting the stage for the analytical chapters that follow. In this byzantine tapestry of regional security dynamics, this thesis seeks not only to contribute to academic knowledge, but also to offer insights into the evolving nature of alignment policies within the South China Sea.
La questione del Mar Cinese Meridionale attira sempre più l’attenzione internazionale. La Repubblica popolare cinese ha effettuato investimenti significativi nella sua marina come parte del suo obiettivo di sviluppare le proprie capacità navali. Le nazioni adiacenti al Mar Cinese Meridionale hanno adottato misure politiche caute poiché il recente clima regionale ha alterato la loro percezione dei rischi e delle minacce. L’assertività della Cina in tutte le catene insulari, le sue capacità militari emergenti, la mancata adesione al diritto marittimo e il suo rifiuto di accettare sentenze arbitrali internazionali hanno attirato una maggiore attenzione internazionale, anche da parte degli Stati Uniti. Ciò ha provocato un'atmosfera regionale in cui le nazioni del sud-est asiatico sono “presi nella tempesta”, dove le politiche di allineamento infruttuose possono portare a risultati dannosi. Considerando ciò, lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di far luce su quanto complesse possano essere le costellazioni di sicurezza regionali, nonché su come i cambiamenti al loro interno possano innescare politiche di allineamento al cambiamento. Per dimostrare questa connessione, il complesso di sicurezza regionale scelto per questa indagine è il Mar Cinese Meridionale e la struttura di questa tesi è strutturata nei seguenti capitoli. In primo luogo, il capitolo “Methodology” approfondisce il problema e la progettazione della ricerca, esplorando le limitazioni poste in termini di osservabilità e comparabilità. Successivamente, il capitolo sul “Quadro teorico” illustrerà i quadri che guidano l’analisi, vale a dire la complessa teoria della sicurezza regionale, i concetti di allineamento armonizzante di bilanciamento, carrozzone e copertura, nonché il modo in cui lo sviluppo della pressione sistemica all’interno del Le RSC hanno ripercussioni sul comportamento strategico delle nazioni. Ciò si riflette a sua volta nei rispettivi sottocapitoli delle nazioni nel capitolo “Analysis”, che utilizza le ipotesi presentate nel capitolo “Theoretical Framework”. A collegare questi due capitoli c’è il capitolo “Historical Context and Legal Approach”, che traccerà lo sviluppo della regione, descrivendo la natura delle rivendicazioni storiche della Cina e ponendo le basi per i capitoli analitici che seguiranno. In questa complessa struttura delle dinamiche di sicurezza regionale, questa tesi cerca non solo di contribuire alla conoscenza accademica, ma anche di offrire spunti sulla natura in evoluzione delle politiche di allineamento nel Mar Cinese Meridionale.
Presi nella Tempesta: Analizzare le Strategie del Sud-est Asiatico nel Mar Cinese Meridionale Attraverso la Teoria del Complesso di Sicurezza Regionale
AUKLEND, KRISTOFFER ANDREAS
2022/2023
Abstract
The South China Sea issue is increasingly catching international attention. The People's Republic of China has made significant investments in its navy as part of its focus to rapidly develop its naval capabilities. Nations adjacent to the South China Sea have increasingly adopted more cautious policy measures as the recent regional climate have altered their risk and threat perceptions. China’s assertive self-accommodation throughout island-chains, its emerging military capabilities, inability to adhere to maritime law, and its rejection to accept international arbitration rulings has brought increased attention from the U.S. This has resulted by a regional atmosphere where Southeast Asian nations are ‘caught up in the storm’ where unsuccessful alignment policies can steer towards injurious outcomes. Considering this, the purpose of this thesis is to shed light on how complex regional security constellations can be, as well as how changes within can spark alignment policies to change. To demonstrate this connection, the chosen regional security complex for this investigation is the South China Sea, and the structure of this dissertation is laid out with the following chapters. Firstly, the ‘methodology’ chapter delves into the research problem and design, navigating through the limitations posed in terms of observability and comparability. Subsequently, the ‘theoretical framework’ chapter will expound upon the frameworks guiding the analysis, namely the Regional Security Complex Theory, the harmonising alignment concepts of balancing, bandwagoning, and hedging, as well as how systemic pressure development within RSCs is echoed upon the nations’ strategic behaviours. This is in turn reflected through the nations’ respective sub-chapters in the ‘Analysis’ chapter, which utilises the hypotheses presented in the ‘Theoretical Framework’ chapter. Bridging these two chapters is the ‘Historical Context and Legal Approach’ Chapter, which will trace the development of the region, portraying the nature of China’s historical claims, and setting the stage for the analytical chapters that follow. In this byzantine tapestry of regional security dynamics, this thesis seeks not only to contribute to academic knowledge, but also to offer insights into the evolving nature of alignment policies within the South China Sea.È consentito all'utente scaricare e condividere i documenti disponibili a testo pieno in UNITESI UNIPV nel rispetto della licenza Creative Commons del tipo CC BY NC ND.
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14239/3797