Climate change is an absolute truth and a fact that cannot be denied nor ignored, with dire consequences at global level. Under climate change, the fifth most populous country, Pakistan, which also is among the top ten countries adversely affected by climate change, is under a threat of food security. Food security refers to the food stability, utility, accessibility and availability. Many natural and manmade phenomena like, temperature, floods, global warming, and agricultural practices affects the growth of food crops and the yield rate. Under such circumstances, where the population is increasing rapidly in Pakistan, whilst facing severe climate change effect, there is an urgent need to address the food security in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study conducted wheat yield analysis, as wheat is the staple food of Pakistan. Using data from NASA and CMIP6 of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation of the growing season, the study used Multiple Linear Regression model to predict the yield rate from 1995 to 2018 and then from 2025 to 2050. The reason of former prediction was to understand how accurate is the MLR model using the climate variables. The accuracy was determined by the use of Root Mean Square Equation (RMSE), Root Mean Deviation (RMD), and Efficiency Model (EF). For CMIP6, the pathways of SSP 2 and SSP 5 were used, where the GCM models were taken from CanESM5 and HadCM3. The study concluded with interesting results of wheat yield rate and the effect of climate variable like temperature and rainfall on yield rate. A trend of declining yield rate was found in the SSP 5 pathway. This information is crucial for present policy and decision makers to make appropriate and timely decision to ensure future food security in Pakistan.
Il cambiamento climatico è una verità assoluta e un fatto che non può essere negato né ignorato, con gravi conseguenze a livello globale. Sotto il cambiamento climatico, il quinto paese più popoloso, il Pakistan, che è anche tra i primi dieci paesi gravemente colpiti dal cambiamento climatico, è sotto minaccia per la sicurezza alimentare. La sicurezza alimentare si riferisce alla stabilità, utilità, accessibilità e disponibilità del cibo. Molti fenomeni naturali e antropici come temperatura, inondazioni, riscaldamento globale e pratiche agricole influenzano la crescita dei coltivi alimentari e il tasso di resa. In tali circostanze, in cui la popolazione aumenta rapidamente in Pakistan, affrontando contemporaneamente gli effetti gravi del cambiamento climatico, c’è un urgente bisogno di affrontare la sicurezza alimentare in Pakistan. A questo scopo, lo studio ha condotto un’analisi del rendimento del grano, poiché il grano è il cibo principale del Pakistan. Utilizzando dati della NASA e CMIP6 di temperatura minima, temperatura massima e precipitazioni della stagione di crescita, lo studio ha utilizzato un modello di regressione lineare multipla per prevedere il tasso di resa dal 1995 al 2018 e poi dal 2025 al 2050. La ragione della prima previsione era capire quanto fosse accurato il modello di regressione lineare multipla utilizzando le variabili climatiche. L’accuratezza è stata determinata utilizzando l’Equazione della Radice del Quadrato Medio (RMSE), la Deviazione Media della Radice (RMD) e il Modello di Efficienza (EF). Per CMIP6 sono stati utilizzati i percorsi SSP 2 e SSP 5, dove i modelli GCM sono stati presi da CanESM5 e HadCM3. Lo studio ha concluso con risultati interessanti sul tasso di resa del grano e l’effetto delle variabili climatiche come temperatura e pioggia sul tasso di resa. È cruciale che i responsabili delle politiche attuali prendano decisioni appropriate e tempestive per garantire la sicurezza alimentare futura in Pakistan.
Impact of Climate change on Future food Security
JAFAR, SYED MUHAMMAD BILAL
2022/2023
Abstract
Climate change is an absolute truth and a fact that cannot be denied nor ignored, with dire consequences at global level. Under climate change, the fifth most populous country, Pakistan, which also is among the top ten countries adversely affected by climate change, is under a threat of food security. Food security refers to the food stability, utility, accessibility and availability. Many natural and manmade phenomena like, temperature, floods, global warming, and agricultural practices affects the growth of food crops and the yield rate. Under such circumstances, where the population is increasing rapidly in Pakistan, whilst facing severe climate change effect, there is an urgent need to address the food security in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study conducted wheat yield analysis, as wheat is the staple food of Pakistan. Using data from NASA and CMIP6 of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation of the growing season, the study used Multiple Linear Regression model to predict the yield rate from 1995 to 2018 and then from 2025 to 2050. The reason of former prediction was to understand how accurate is the MLR model using the climate variables. The accuracy was determined by the use of Root Mean Square Equation (RMSE), Root Mean Deviation (RMD), and Efficiency Model (EF). For CMIP6, the pathways of SSP 2 and SSP 5 were used, where the GCM models were taken from CanESM5 and HadCM3. The study concluded with interesting results of wheat yield rate and the effect of climate variable like temperature and rainfall on yield rate. A trend of declining yield rate was found in the SSP 5 pathway. This information is crucial for present policy and decision makers to make appropriate and timely decision to ensure future food security in Pakistan.È consentito all'utente scaricare e condividere i documenti disponibili a testo pieno in UNITESI UNIPV nel rispetto della licenza Creative Commons del tipo CC BY NC ND.
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14239/3872