In this thesis I want to stress the role of conditional reasoning in making decisions. In particular I study this topic in its connection with game theory and choices of strategies in games. The focus will be on the formal side of the story, and the main result of the thesis is in fact the construction of a formal logical system for conditional strategic reasoning. The formal system analyses the conditional strategic reasoning in extensive form games, i.e. games in which turns, plays, strategies are known. This formal system will match logical systems for local conditional strategic reasoning with temporal logics in order to be able to study conditional reasoning in the whole game. The technical result is combined with a theoretical analysis of both philosophical and game theoretic concepts. The first chapter gives preliminaries knowledge and background in order to give to the reader all the basics to read the rest of the thesis. In particular some basic informations in modal logic and in game theory are given. After this, the thesis starts with a critical analysis of current discussion upon conditionals. This chapter is purely philosophical and tries to give a clear view of the studies on conditional propositions. There definitions of indicative conditionals and counterfactuals are given. The second part of the chapter is dedicated to a deep description of Lewis theory of counterfactuals in which I also stress some problems of Lewis theory. Chapter 2 shifts the focus on a more game theoretic side of the problem defining what is meant by conditional strategic reasoning. An example of conditional strategic reasoning is given in the game theoretic concept of backward induction and a problem lying in it is proposed. After that some philosophical concepts linked to conditional reasoning are analysed, in particular time and rationality. In chapter 3 the formal system is proposed: model, language and semantics are given, as well as some examples of applications of the new system.
La tesi si propone di studiare le proposizioni condizionali sia dal punto di vista prettamente filosofico che dal punto di vista della teoria dei giochi. Il primo capitolo affronta il dibattito filosofico contemporaneo sull'analisi delle proposizioni condizionali, proponendone una tassonomia basata su un criterio semantico. In questo capitolo si presenta un approfondimento sulla teoria dei controfattuali di Lewis. Nel secondo capitolo, il ragionamento strategico basato sui condizionali viene studiato e approfondito facendo riferimento a concetti e problemi sia filosofici che inerenti la teoria dei giochi. In particolare si presenta il processo di backward induction e si affrontano problemi legati ai concetti di tempo e razionalità. Il capitolo terzo sviluppa un sistema formale per l'analisi del ragionamento strategico condizionale nei giochi in forma estesa. In questo capitolo si presentano modello, linguaggio e semantica del nuovo sistema formale, oltre a delle sue applicazioni.
Il ragionamento strategico basato sui condizionali nei giochi in forma estesa.
TRUSSARDI, LIVIA
2019/2020
Abstract
In this thesis I want to stress the role of conditional reasoning in making decisions. In particular I study this topic in its connection with game theory and choices of strategies in games. The focus will be on the formal side of the story, and the main result of the thesis is in fact the construction of a formal logical system for conditional strategic reasoning. The formal system analyses the conditional strategic reasoning in extensive form games, i.e. games in which turns, plays, strategies are known. This formal system will match logical systems for local conditional strategic reasoning with temporal logics in order to be able to study conditional reasoning in the whole game. The technical result is combined with a theoretical analysis of both philosophical and game theoretic concepts. The first chapter gives preliminaries knowledge and background in order to give to the reader all the basics to read the rest of the thesis. In particular some basic informations in modal logic and in game theory are given. After this, the thesis starts with a critical analysis of current discussion upon conditionals. This chapter is purely philosophical and tries to give a clear view of the studies on conditional propositions. There definitions of indicative conditionals and counterfactuals are given. The second part of the chapter is dedicated to a deep description of Lewis theory of counterfactuals in which I also stress some problems of Lewis theory. Chapter 2 shifts the focus on a more game theoretic side of the problem defining what is meant by conditional strategic reasoning. An example of conditional strategic reasoning is given in the game theoretic concept of backward induction and a problem lying in it is proposed. After that some philosophical concepts linked to conditional reasoning are analysed, in particular time and rationality. In chapter 3 the formal system is proposed: model, language and semantics are given, as well as some examples of applications of the new system.È consentito all'utente scaricare e condividere i documenti disponibili a testo pieno in UNITESI UNIPV nel rispetto della licenza Creative Commons del tipo CC BY NC ND.
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14239/96